The organised crime of kidnapping in Nigeria: a quantitative study of the factors influencing its severity

The extant literature in the social sciences often employs qualitative methods to capture the contextual nuances of the nature, manifestations, and impacts of issues of importance today. This is the case for studies looking at kidnapping in Nigeria, where perception-based surveys are often neglected. We argue that these qualitative approaches alone are inadequate for thoroughly comprehending the structural factors and public opinions that explain the occurrence and severity of kidnapping in Nigeria. This study extensively analyses the seriousness of kidnapping as a critical security issue in contemporary Nigeria, seeking to explore the factors contributing to this phenomenon through a quantitative survey based on citizen perceptions, as they endure the impacts of kidnapping within their communities. Using logistic regression, this study examined the 2022 Afrobarometer data to determine the factors influencing kidnapping in Nigeria. The findings indicate that, as the frequency of kidnapping is rising, poor police handling of kidnapping cases, worsening economic conditions, community safety concerns, ethnic marginalization, and low ethnic trust significantly predict the perceived severity of kidnapping in Nigeria. In contrast, perceptions of government handling crime (although associated considerably at the bivariate level) and corruption were not statistically significant in the multivariate analysis. Highlighting the severity of kidnapping in Nigeria contributes to the body of knowledge in security studies, development studies, and governance by illustrating how economic hardship, institutional failure, and social crisis influence the frequency and perceived seriousness of kidnapping. It points to the need for more collaborative, networked governance that puts people at the centre of policies and actions to tackle kidnapping in Nigeria.