Rethinking Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFW) for multi-risks

Impact-based Forecasts and Warnings (IbFWs) are crucial for disaster risk reduction; however, most systems focus on single hazards, overlooking the complex interactions of multi-risk events. This siloed approach can underestimate impacts, especially when hazards occur simultaneously or sequentially. Developing multi-risk IbFW systems requires interdisciplinary collaboration, improved modelling, more impact data and clearer terminology. Analysis of historical disasters shows that multi-hazard events cause disproportionate economic losses. Advancing IbFW systems demands pragmatic innovation, robust datasets, and inclusive strategies to better reflect real-world hazard complexity.