The trade-off between enrolment expansion, school resources, and learning outcomes in Punjab’s public schools

Abstract Driven by global commitments like the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), developing countries have rapidly expanded primary and secondary school enrolment. Yet, this focus on access has often come at the expense of learning. In Punjab, education reforms since 2004 have significantly increased enrolment in public schools (grades 1–8). However, the potential trade-off between enrolment expansion and learning outcomes has yet to be systematically studied. This study assesses the link between enrolment expansion and learning outcomes and examines how school resources mediate this relationship. It uses a school-level dataset on enrolment, test scores, and school resources in primary and middle public schools in Punjab, with longitudinal data from 2008 to 2018. The analysis follows a three-step approach: first, pooled OLS regression is used to examine the relationship between enrolment expansion and learning outcomes; second, a change-in-change analysis assesses how changes in enrolment over time affect changes in learning outcomes; and third, a mediation analysis explores whether school resources can account for the relationship between enrolment expansion and learning outcomes. OLS estimates show a weak positive link between enrolment and pass rates, suggesting larger schools may perform slightly better. However, change-in-change analysis reveals that faster enrolment growth is associated with declines in pass rates—by 3.6 and 5.8% points at the primary and middle levels. Negative effects on pass rates were not replicated for average test scores, indicating that those most affected were low-achieving students near the pass/fail borderline. These trends are consistent across boys’ and girls’ schools. Mediator analysis shows school resources do not explain the trade-off. While some negative effects on pass rates exist, the limited impact on test scores overall suggests Punjab has managed to expand access without compromising learning for the majority of students, although learning of the lowest achieving students may have been negatively impacted.