Burden analysis of malignant neoplasms of bone and articular cartilage in China: Epidemiological trends and future projections based on the global burden of disease study

This study investigates the epidemiological trends of malignant neoplasms of bone and articular cartilage (MNBAC) in China from 1992 to 2021, examines their association with age-period-cohort factors, and forecasts the future epidemiological trends of MNBAC for the period 2022 to 2031. Data on the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years associated with MNBAC were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 database. Temporal trends were analyzed through age-standardized rates (ASR) and estimated annual percentage changes to capture variations over time. An age-period-cohort analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of demographic and temporal factors. Additionally, future trends for 2022 to 2031 were forecasted using the auto-regressive integrated moving average modeling approach. From 1992 to 2021, the incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years rates of MNBAC in China showed a consistent overall increase, despite a downward trend in ASR. As of 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate was recorded at 1.4 per 100,000 (95% uncertainty intervals: 0.9-1.9), with an estimated annual percentage changes of 3.27 (95% confidence intervals: 2.57-3.98). Males exhibited markedly higher rates across all metrics compared to females. The disease burden followed a bimodal age distribution, disproportionately affecting adolescents and older adults. Projections for 2022 to 2031 indicate declines in age-standardized metrics but an absolute increase in case numbers, primarily attributed to population growth and aging demographics. This analysis underscores the growing burden of MNBAC in China, marked by higher rates in males and a bimodal age distribution affecting adolescents and the elderly. While ASR are anticipated to decline in the coming decade, the overall disease burden is likely to rise persistently. These findings provide valuable insights into the epidemiological trends and determinants of MNBAC, forming a basis for targeted interventions and future research priorities.