Global burden and trends of severe chest injuries from 1990 to 2021 and projections to 2045

Severe chest injuries pose a substantial threat to human life and health, potentially leading to disability and mortality. However, comprehensive descriptions regarding the global epidemiology of this injury are rare. The incidence, prevalence and years lived with disability related to severe chest injuries were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The age-standardized rate and estimated annual percentage change were subsequently calculated. Health disparities associated with severe chest injuries were illustrated utilizing the slope index of inequality and concentration index. Future disease trends over the next 25 years were projected using the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model. Globally, the incidence of new cases of severe chest injuries have increased; however, the incidence rate has exhibited a downward trend across most countries and regions. YLD demonstrate similar patterns. The prevalence of severe chest injuries is highest in regions with a high Socio-demographic Index, particularly among individuals aged over 70, who exhibit the highest incidence rate across all age categories. The primary causes of severe chest injuries include falls, interpersonal violence, exposure to mechanical forces, and transportation injuries. Health inequality related to severe chest injuries has markedly reduced, with developed countries exhibiting a stronger potential to further reduce the disease burden associated with severe chest injuries. Despite a notable reduction in the global disease burden of severe chest injuries, disparities in health outcomes persist between countries and territories. These findings highlight the critical need for targeted public health interventions, including fall prevention programs in aging high-SDI region populations and enhanced trauma care infrastructure in conflict-affected low-SDI regions, to mitigate the burden of severe chest injuries globally.