High resolution assessment of the impact of solar radiation modification on future Caribbean wind and solar energy sources

Abstract This study employed the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale outputs from the HadGEM2-ES global climate model for the Caribbean at resolutions of 40 km and 8 km. Simulations were conducted for a historical period (1980–1990) and two future periods corresponding to global warming limits of 1.5 °C (2024–2034) and 2 °C (2038–2048) derived from the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 projection. The future projections were from the RCP4.5 scenario and the solar radiation modification (SRM) G4 scenario from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project, focusing on variables relevant to wind and solar energy assessments. Three bias-correction methods were independently applied to the downscaled outputs to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing bias while preserving projected climate change signals. The Quantile Delta Mapping and Delta method produced the best outputs and were subsequently used to assess the potential influence of SRM on solar and wind energy resources at the island scale. Results indicate that wind speeds under the G4 scenario generally decrease across much of the Caribbean, with parts of southern Jamaica and Hispaniola seeing the most notable increases. Changes in solar irradiance appear minimal; however, this finding remains inconclusive due to limitations in validating the more variable historical distribution of the WRF-derived outputs. These findings demonstrate the feasibility of conducting sub-regional and local-scale wind energy assessments in the Caribbean while underscoring the need for improved observational datasets to enhance solar resource validation.