Foundations of opportunity conviction: A configurational analysis of the COVID-19 recovery

We examine the concept of opportunity conviction as a key indicator of the resilience of countries’ entrepreneurial ecosystems during crises. For entrepreneurship, opportunity conviction constitutes a joint-threshold outcome: it materializes only when opportunity visibility (the presence of credible signals of near-term demand and cash-flow potential) is sufficiently high, and deterrent risk (the perceived downside given institutional stability, available buffers, and hazard control) is sufficiently low. Using data from the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) and applying fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), we identify how configurations of foundational contextual factors combine with policy measures to foster high opportunity conviction in 2021. Five configurations demonstrate the alternative recipes of contextual and policy conditions that achieve opportunity conviction in times of crisis. Theoretical and practitioner implications are discussed.