Restorative seafood production from aquaculture needs optimism and intervention

Abstract Regenerative food systems, such as restorative aquaculture, are an approach to food production that can support ecosystem function and repair while meeting demands for protein and nutrition. However, it is not well understood whether these approaches are preferred by industry and supporting organizations, and, if so, whether they could become more widespread in the future. Using the United States of America marine aquaculture industry as a case study, we undertook a collaborative, mixed-methods scenario analysis to understand two potential futures for restorative aquaculture in 2035: the perceived business-as-usual scenario and a preferred-and-plausible scenario. We conducted an online survey, collecting 100 individual responses from industry, academia, Indigenous community organizations, government, and extension services. We found many respondents expected restorative aquaculture to provide co-benefits to a range of user groups, and the industry was positive about prioritizing restorative approaches in future expansion; 67.3% of industry respondents indicated they would give preference to restorative species and practices if expanding operations. To develop the two scenarios, we analysed these survey results through three regional workshops with stakeholders. The workshops confirmed interest and optimism for a future restorative aquaculture industry, but that constraints to this future exist and the preferred state is unlikely to be achieved without effective policies and supporting mechanisms. Active intervention across investment, research, regulation, market development, training, and Indigenous knowledge and leadership, is needed. Promising interventions include strengthened partnerships with government agencies to build more enabling conditions, science partnerships to build evidence of ecological and social co-benefits, and greater industry coordination to harness existing leadership and pro-environmental commitments in the early stages of development.