Lifetime modeling of one unit to three unit CubeSats

Nanosatellites have seen a recent surge in popularity as they are capable of gathering data for impactful science at a fraction of the cost of large satellites. These nanosatellites are almost exclusively launched into low Earth orbit (LEO) where atmospheric drag is the main determining factor in the lifetime of these satellites in the absence of a propulsion system. The Federal Communications Commission has mandated that satellites in LEO deorbit within a five-year time frame after the end of their mission. This paper seeks to analyze the Two-Line Element (TLE) data sets from past nanosatellites in order to predict a lifetime range based on launch altitude for prospective nanosatellites. Based on our analysis we found that any 1U-3U CubeSat without deployables launched near solar maximum at an altitude of less than 500 km has a lifetime of less than 2.5 years and at an altitude of less than 400 km will have a lifetime of less than 6 months. Additionally, this paper explores the error in current orbit propagation methods over long time periods to understand to what extent such methods can be used for mission planning purposes. In addition, the effect of solar activity on the drag force is crucial to understand and model in order to predict how the lifetimes of future nanosatellites will differ from those of past nanosatellites which orbited during different solar conditions. To this end, this paper also analyzes the effect of historical geomagnetic storms on the altitude of nanosatellites and how that differs from periods of low solar activity. It was found that for CubeSats orbiting above 550 km the decay rate increased by over 100% during the storms occurring in March 2015 and April 2023.