A food system transformation pathway reconciles 1.5 °C global warming with improved health, environment and social inclusion
The improvement of the global food system requires a thorough understanding of how specific measures may contribute to the system's transformation. Here we apply a global food and land system modelling framework to quantify the impact of 23 food system measures on 15 outcome indicators related to public health, the environment, social inclusion and the economy, up to 2050. While all individual measures come with trade-offs, their combination can reduce trade-offs and enhance co-benefits. We estimate that combining all food system measures may reduce yearly mortality by 182 million life years and almost halves nitrogen surplus while offsetting negative effects of environmental protection measures on absolute poverty. Through joint efforts, including measures outside the food system, the 1.5 °C climate target can be achieved.
Authors
- Benjamin Leon Bodirsky (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8242-6712)
- Edna Johanna Molina Bacca (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6530-1849)
- Patrick von Jeetze (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1197-4412)
- Pepijn Schreinemachers (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1596-3179)
- Patrick Rein (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9454-8381)
- Debbora Leip (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6034-9640)
- Quitterie Collignon
- Felicitas Beier (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8725-7663)
- Alexandre C. Köberle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0328-4750)
- Simon Dietz
- David M. Chen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5939-9093)
- Jens Heinke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5256-0024)
- Zebedee Nicholls (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4767-2723)
- Jared Lewis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8155-8924)
- Jessica Strefler (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5279-4629)
- Florian Humpenöder (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2927-9407)
- Hermann Lotze‐Campen (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0003-5508)
- Abhijeet Mishra (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8287-9922)
- Marco Springmann (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6028-5712)
- Miodrag Stevanović (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1799-186X)
- Ravi Kanbur (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8964-3333)
- Bjoern Soergel (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2630-7081)
- Kristine Karstens (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5860-9789)
- Jan Philipp Dietrich (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4309-6431)
- Isabelle Weindl (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7651-6930)
- Michael Crawford (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1282-400X)
- Alexander Popp (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9500-1986)
- Claudia Hunecke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6129-3933)
- Xiaoxi Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2678-9217)
- Christoph Müller (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9491-3550)
- Vartika Singh (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4896-7590)
- P. Sauer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6856-8239)
Institutions
- University of Kassel (DE)
- World Vegetable Center (TW)
- International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT)
- University of Lisbon (PT)
- International Food Policy Research Institute (US)
- International Management Institute (IN)
- The University of Melbourne (AU)
- Cornell University (US)
- Leibniz Association (DE)
- Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin (DE)
- University of Oxford (GB)
- London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (GB)
- Climate Centre (NL)
- Climate Resource (Australia)
- Imperial College London (GB)
- Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DE)
- Zhejiang University (CN)
- London School of Economics and Political Science (GB)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Nature Food
- Published
- 2025-12-19
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s43016-025-01268-y
- Citations
- 2
- Primary Topic
- Agriculture Sustainability and Environmental Impact
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 3.43