Spatial and Temporal Variations in Soil Salinity and Groundwater in the Downstream Yarkant River Irrigation District

The downstream irrigation district of the Yarkant River basin has experienced increasing soil salinization driven by shallow groundwater levels, constraining the sustainable development of regional agriculture. However, the dynamic relationship between soil salinity and groundwater depth in this region remains unclear, limiting the effectiveness of saline–alkali land remediation strategies based on groundwater level regulation. In this study, field data were collected in 2025 on total soil salinity, concentrations of eight major ions, groundwater depth, and groundwater salinity in the irrigation district. The spatiotemporal distribution patterns of soil salinity, groundwater depth, and groundwater salinity were analyzed, along with their interrelationships. The soils in the irrigation district are predominantly mildly to moderately saline. Overall, soil salinity exhibits clear seasonal patterns, characterized by accumulation due to evaporation in spring and autumn and dilution through irrigation in summer. The dominant anions in the soil were SO42− and Cl−, while Ca2+ and Na+ were the dominant cations, indicating a chloride–sulfate salinity type. Soil salinity shows a significant positive correlation with groundwater mineralization. A clear Boltzmann function relationship was identified between soil salinity and groundwater depth, revealing a critical groundwater depth of 2.10–2.18 m for salt accumulation in the irrigation district. The critical groundwater depths corresponding to soil salinity and major salt ions, from lowest to highest, are Cl− < Na+ < total salts < SO42− < Ca2+. Random forest regression analysis identified the main factors influencing soil salinity and their relative importance, ranked from highest to lowest as follows: groundwater depth > Na+ > Cl− > groundwater salinity > Ca2+ > SO42− > Mg2+ > HCO3− > K+ > CO32−. Maintaining groundwater depth below the critical threshold and focusing on groundwater ions that strongly influence soil salinity can effectively alleviate soil salinization in the lower Yarkant River irrigation district caused by shallow, highly mineralized groundwater.