Integrating Machine Learning Temporal Disaggregation and Physics-Based Simulation for Lifecycle Assessment of Buildings

This study presents an integrated framework for lifecycle assessment (LCA) and lifecycle costing (LCC) of buildings and districts that combines machine learning-based temporal disaggregation, physics-based simulation, and holistic environmental evaluation. The methodology addresses a key limitation of conventional LCA practice: the reliance on temporally aggregated energy data, which obscures daily and seasonal variability affecting environmental and economic indicators. A hierarchical disaggregation algorithm was used to reconstruct hourly electricity profiles from monthly totals and was coupled with the INTEMA building energy performance simulator and the VERIFY LCA/LCC platform. The disaggregation algorithm was validated on an office building in Cardiff, UK, supported by cross-validation across multiple UK office buildings, and achieved strong agreement with measured hourly consumption (R2 = 0.81, RMSE = 3.71 kWh). In the Cardiff case, the reconstructed hourly profiles reproduced lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions and costs within 0.5% of the reference hourly measurement approach, compared with deviations of 44.1% and 2.9% under conventional monthly aggregation. The complete hybrid framework was then applied to a district in Massagno, Switzerland, encompassing eight buildings with heterogeneous typologies, for which only aggregated energy data were available (monthly for the office building and annual for the others). Over a 20-year horizon, total emissions reached 9429 tCO2-eq and primary energy demand approached 226 GWh, equivalent to 41 kgCO2-eq·m−2·yr−1. The results illustrate the framework’s applicability to multi-building systems and its ability to support LCA and LCC in contexts with limited temporal data availability.