Forecasting the Production of Construction Waste and Evaluating the Economic Value of Resource Utilization

With the rapid development of the global urbanization process, the resource utilization of construction waste has become one of the core issues of the development of a circular economy and has been widely concerned by the international community. However, China’s resource utilization efficiency in this field is still in the development stage, and cthere is still a gap with developed countries. It is urgent to systematically solve scientific problems such as low resource utilization efficiency, prominent technical bottlenecks, and imperfect whole process management mechanisms, so as to realize the coordinated high-quality development of the economy, society, and the environment. In order to scientifically predict the generation trend of construction waste and assess the resource potential, this study takes Beijing as the research object. Based on the historical data samples of construction waste in Beijing from 2001 to 2024, the analysis framework of “output estimation—trend prediction—value evaluation” is constructed. The ARIMA model is selected as the core tool of prediction, because it can match the phased change characteristics of construction waste output with the development of the city in time series data processing. Combined with the cost–benefit analysis method, it makes a quantitative analysis of the future production scale of construction waste and the economic benefits of resource utilization in Beijing. The research results show that from 2025 to 2034, the production of construction waste in Beijing will show a trend of first decreasing and then increasing, and it will reach 13.599 million tons by 2034. The resource utilization of construction waste in the next 10 years is expected to bring about USD 2.998 billion of economic benefits. This prediction result may be related to the policy guidance of Beijing’s urban renewal, changes in construction activities, and industrial technology upgrading. Accordingly, this study puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to help the development of industrialization, providing theoretical support and practical references for the sustainable development of the resource utilization of construction waste.