Integration of Machine Learning and Feature Analysis for the Optimization of Enhanced Oil Recovery and Carbon Sequestration in Oil Reservoirs

The dual imperative of mitigating carbon emissions and maximizing hydrocarbon recovery has amplified global interest in carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies. These integrated processes hold significant promise for achieving net-zero targets while extending the productive life of mature oil reservoirs. However, their effectiveness hinges on a nuanced understanding of the complex interactions between geological formations, reservoir characteristics, and injection strategies. In this study, a comprehensive machine learning-based framework is presented for estimating CO2 storage capacity and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) performance simultaneously in subsurface reservoirs. The methodology combines simulation-driven uncertainty quantification with supervised machine learning to develop predictive surrogate models. Simulation results were used to generate a diverse dataset of reservoir and operational parameters, which served as inputs for training and testing three machine learning models: Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The models were trained to predict three key performance indicators (KPIs): cumulative oil production (bbl), oil recovery factor (%), and CO2 sequestration volume (SCF). All three models exhibited exceptional predictive accuracy, achieving coefficients of determination (R2) greater than 0.999 across both training and testing datasets for all KPIs. Specifically, the Random Forest and XGBoost models consistently outperformed the ANN model in terms of generalization, particularly for CO2 sequestration volume predictions. These results underscore the robustness and reliability of machine learning models for evaluating and forecasting the performance of CO2-EOR and sequestration strategies. To enhance model interpretability and support decision-making, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) analysis was applied. SHAP, grounded in cooperative game theory, offers a model-agnostic approach to feature attribution by assigning an importance value to each input parameter for a given prediction. The SHAP results provided transparent and quantifiable insights into how geological and operational features such as porosity, injection rate, water production rate, pressure, etc., affect key output metrics. Overall, this study demonstrates that integrating machine learning with domain-specific simulation data offers a scalable approach for optimizing CCUS operations. The insights derived from the predictive models and SHAP analysis can inform strategic planning, reduce operational uncertainty, and support more sustainable oilfield development practices.