Once Bitten, Twice Shy: The Impact of Natural Disasters on the Adoption of Agricultural Green Production Technologies by Farmers Based on the Risk Aversion Perspective

ABSTRACT The limited uptake of agricultural green production technology (AGPT) practices by farmers has long attracted attention from diverse sectors of society. Based on the dynamic nature of risk aversion among farmers, this research investigates how natural disasters influence their adoption of green technologies and suggests appropriate response measures. The results spot that: (1) Natural disasters significantly reduce both the probability and the intensity of farmers' adoption of AGPT. This finding holds under various robustness checks, such as using alternative measures for the dependent variable. (2) The primary reason is that repeated exposure to disasters heightens farmers' risk aversion, thereby shaping their technology adoption choices. Greater risk aversion corresponds to a lower propensity and a reduced scale of AGPT usage. (3) Heterogeneity analysis reveals that disasters exposure consistently discourages AGPT adoption across farmer subgroups. However, the adverse effect is more acute among small‐scale operators, households less dependent on crop income, and those with limited access to agricultural machinery. (4) agricultural subsidies and insurance uptake can partly offset the suppressing influence of natural disasters on the adoption of AGPT. To advance sustainable agricultural development in China, future efforts should focus on reinforcing disaster early‐warning systems, expanding skill development programs, and refining the agricultural insurance framework.