Predicting the potential global distribution of <i>Laodelphax striatellus</i> (Hemiptera: Delphacidae) under climate change: Shifting patterns and management implications

Abstract The global food crisis remains a critical issue that requires urgent intervention, particularly through increased food production. As the third most important staple crop, rice plays a crucial role in sustaining global food security. However, rice cultivation in many regions around the world is severely threatened by the pest Laodelphax striatellus (Hemiptera: Delphacidae), resulting in significant losses in yield. Therefore, identifying the geographical distribution of this pest is essential for developing effective management strategies In this study, a MaxEnt model was employed using global distribution and environmental data to predict the current and future potential distribution of L. striatellus and assess spatial and temporal dynamics. Furthermore, changes in rice‐growing regions affected by this pest were analysed. The results revealed that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (BIO9) was the most influential environmental factor restricting the distribution of L. striatellus . Currently, suitable habitats of L. striatellus are widespread, predominantly across Asian and European countries. Under future climate scenarios, the total area suitable for this pest is projected to expand, although the extent of infested rice‐growing regions may decline. Among the 20 countries with the largest rice‐growing areas, only China's infected area is expected to continue increasing in the future, suggesting that it will become a priority area for control. These predictions provide essential insights for the strategic management of L. striatellus in the context of climate change, and contribute to ongoing efforts to manage its impact on rice production and global food security.