A dual-level assessment framework for interregional water scarcity risk transfer integrating efficiency and equity: A case study of China

Against the backdrop of increasing global water scarcity, interregional virtual water trade has become a critical factor affecting regional water security. This study develops a dual-level assessment framework for interregional water scarcity risk transfer that integrates both efficiency and equity. By combining an environmentally extended multi-regional input-output model, a super-efficiency data envelopment analysis model, and a modified Theil Index approach, the framework systematically quantifies the transmission and redistribution mechanisms of water scarcity risk at both the regional and pathway levels. An empirical analysis is conducted using data from 30 provinces in China. The results reveal that: a) Interprovincial virtual water trade in China led to an overall increase of 38.82 billion m 3 in national water scarcity risk magnitude. b) Although 16 provinces demonstrated strong performance in efficiency of water scarcity risk transfer, some — such as Xinjiang and Jiangsu — still acted as “risk intensifiers”. In contrast, eight provinces with lower efficiency could improve by upgrading industrial structures and optimizing trade patterns. c) The inequity in water scarcity risk burdens changed significantly after virtual water trade, with disparities increasing both between and within regions. Notably, the contribution of intra-regional inequity in the northwest region rose from 63.50 % to 70.00 %. d) Most trade pathways suffered from both low efficiency and low equity, with only about 7 % characterized by both high pathway efficiency and high fairness. The proposed dual-level assessment framework effectively captures the dynamic evolution of water scarcity risk within multi-regional trade networks. The findings provide valuable data support for policy design aimed at managing the risks associated with virtual water trade. • A dual-level assessment framework for interregional water scarcity risk transfer is developed. • Input–output analysis and data envelopment analysis are effectively integrated. • Transmission and redistribution mechanisms of interregional water scarcity risk are quantified. • Efficiency gradients and inequity patterns in China's water scarcity risk are tracked. • Water scarcity risk governance needs to be incorporated into virtual water trade policy design.