Energy Prices in the Context of the European Green Deal and Their Impact on the Number of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises in Poland

The changes introduced under the European Green Deal policy affect many areas of life. They also have significant consequences for the functioning of small and medium-sized enterprises. The authors put forward the thesis that one of the key categories of costs in the case of such firms, which significantly influences their decision to commence, continue or cease operations, is the cost of purchasing electricity and gas. Analysing data from the Central Statistical Office in Poland for the years 2015–2025 and constructing an econometric model on this basis, the authors found arguments that the cost of purchasing electricity (as opposed to the cost of purchasing gas) may probably indeed play the role attributed to it. However, the detected relationships are of a very complex nature and only the ML model, Random Forest, was able to identify them (linear and non-linear OLS regression models were not appropriate here). Although Random Forest is a predictive method and does not identify structural causality, the findings may be important for decision-makers assessing the scale of the challenges that small and medium-sized enterprises will have to face in the coming years. Moreover, the findings constitute a significant argument in favour of support instruments (e.g., contracts for difference, long-term PPAs for SMEs, support for energy efficiency and self-generation) for the aforementioned category of entities.