Dutch Disease and the Structural Sustainability of the Manufacturing Sector: Empirical Evidence from Peru

In recent decades, Peru’s manufacturing sector has steadily declined in its share of gross domestic product, despite sustained economic growth and repeated improvements in the terms of trade. This study investigates whether this divergence between external bonanza and industrial stagnation reflects a manifestation of Dutch disease, with long-term implications for the structural sustainability of the country’s manufacturing base. A quantitative approach is applied through a multiple linear regression model estimated by Ordinary Least Squares, using quarterly data from 2012 to 2024. The analysis includes control variables such as real gross domestic product, private gross fixed investment, the real exchange rate, and a dummy for COVID-19. The results reveal a negative and statistically significant relationship between terms of trade and manufacturing performance, suggesting that favorable external shocks may undermine productive capacities by exacerbating structural vulnerabilities. Beyond quantifying this effect, the study offers a structural interpretation of how external shocks can erode industrial resilience in economies dependent on commodity exports. These findings underscore that structural sustainability depends not only on external conditions, but also on internal factors such as investment dynamics, institutional governance, and technological innovation capacity. In addressing a gap in the literature on Dutch disease and sectoral sustainability in the Peruvian context, the study concludes by calling for a strategic reorientation of industrial policy toward a more diversified, inclusive, and innovation-driven growth model, capable of absorbing external rents productively and ensuring the long-term resilience of the manufacturing sector amid persistent global volatility.