Understanding the East China Winter 10 m Wind Speed Forecast Skill in the Copernicus <scp>C3S</scp> Multi‐Model Ensemble

ABSTRACT Accurate seasonal forecasting of wind energy resources is critical for optimising renewable energy integration. This study assesses the prediction skill of winter 10 m wind speed anomalies over East China using the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble forecasts, revealing that ECMWF and UK Met Office (UKMO) models demonstrate superior performance. We conduct comprehensive analyses of spatial anomaly correlations, temporal correlations, and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decompositions by dividing the study area into northern (Zone 1), central (Zone 2) and southern (Zone 3) subregions. Results indicate strong forecast skill in Zone 1 and Zone 3, attributable to their tight correlation with well‐resolved large‐scale circulation patterns, whereas Zone 2 exhibited limited skill due to complex local influences. A hybrid dynamical‐statistical model is used to reconstruct EOF1, which is then combined with the original model outputs of EOF2 and EOF3. The result shows a substantial increase in temporal correlation coefficient in Zone 2. These findings establish that dynamical‐statistical integration effectively enhances regional wind predictions, offering actionable insights for grid operators and energy planners seeking to mitigate renewable integration challenges in evolving climate regimes.

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Publication Details

Journal
International Journal of Climatology
Published
2025-12-19
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.70236
Primary Topic
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
Type
article
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article

Understanding the East China Winter 10 m Wind Speed Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble

Zengyuan Guo, Paul‐Arthur Monerie, Yunyun Liu, Zhuozhuo Lyu
International Journal of Climatology
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
article

Understanding the East China Winter 10 m Wind Speed Forecast Skill in the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble

Zengyuan Guo, Paul‐Arthur Monerie, Yunyun Liu, Zhuozhuo Lyu
article en

Abstract

ABSTRACT Accurate seasonal forecasting of wind energy resources is critical for optimising renewable energy integration. This study assesses the prediction skill of winter 10 m wind speed anomalies over East China using the Copernicus C3S Multi‐Model Ensemble forecasts, revealing that ECMWF and UK Met Office (UKMO) models demonstrate superior performance. We conduct comprehensive analyses of spatial anomaly correlations, temporal correlations, and empirical orthogonal function (EOF) decompositions by dividing the study area into northern (Zone 1), central (Zone 2) and southern (Zone 3) subregions. Results indicate strong forecast skill in Zone 1 and Zone 3, attributable to their tight correlation with well‐resolved large‐scale circulation patterns, whereas Zone 2 exhibited limited skill due to complex local influences. A hybrid dynamical‐statistical model is used to reconstruct EOF1, which is then combined with the original model outputs of EOF2 and EOF3. The result shows a substantial increase in temporal correlation coefficient in Zone 2. These findings establish that dynamical‐statistical integration effectively enhances regional wind predictions, offering actionable insights for grid operators and energy planners seeking to mitigate renewable integration challenges in evolving climate regimes.

International Journal of ClimatologyVol. 46(3)
China Meteorological Administration (CN), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (CN), National Centre for Atmospheric Science (GB), University of Reading (GB)
Openalex Percentile: Top 58%
Energy Load and Power Forecasting
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Understanding the East China Winter 10 m Wind Speed Forecast Skill in the Copernicus <scp>C3S</scp> Multi‐Model Ensemble — Zengyuan Guo, Paul‐Arthur Monerie, et al. · International Journal of Climatology (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS