Navigating uncertainty in regulatory decision-making for novel entities: The case of trifluoroacetic acid (TFA) and its precursors

Regulatory decision-making for novel entities such as trifluoroacetic acid, respectively trifluoroacetate (TFA), involves multiple forms of uncertainty. This paper applies a typology that structures uncertainty along two dimensions: types of uncertainty (epistemological, ontological, and ambiguity) and objects of uncertainty (substantive, strategic, and institutional). We argue that three key substantive features of TFA, its large number of precursors, its extreme environmental persistence, and its global mobility, do not only shape substantive uncertainties about its properties, effects, and mitigation, but also amplify strategic and institutional uncertainties. Specifically, the wide and fragmented network of actors involved in TFA’s regulation across sectors (e.g., water, pesticides) creates diffuse responsibilities and complicates coordination. TFA’s persistence intensifies ontological uncertainties, as continuous and potentially irreversible exposure renders some long-term impacts effectively unknowable within relevant policy timeframes. Its mobility challenges regulatory systems that are spatially and institutionally bound. Importantly, we show how regulatory outcomes are shaped not only by substantive or institutional challenges but also by competing actor framings and power asymmetries, as actors strategically influence how regulatory uncertainties are defined and addressed. These findings are not just relevant for TFA regulation, but also for the broader group of novel entities where regulatory decision-making depends on measures such as emission reduction, improved input control, increased regulatory transparency, and sensitivity to power asymmetries. We propose that the applied typology can serve as a boundary object to foster interdisciplinary dialogue in environmental governance, bridging distinct philosophical and disciplinary perspectives while remaining sufficiently open to accommodate different conceptual and disciplinary framings of uncertainty. The applied typology shows how different types and objects of uncertainty interact in decision-making around novel entities. • Applies a typology to structure uncertainty around trifluoroacetic acid. • Shows how precursors, persistence, and mobility amplify uncertainties. • Highlights the role of power and framing in regulatory decision-making. • Links trifluoroacetic acid to broader regulatory challenges for novel entities. • Typology serves as boundary object for interdisciplinary knowledge production.