Climate Change and Variability Trends and Smallholder Farmers’ Perceptions in the Jemma Sub-Basin, Upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

Abstract Climate change and variability have significantly impacted smallholder and subsistence farmers in Ethiopia. The effectiveness of adaptation measures largely depends on how farmers perceive climate change and variability. Hence, understanding their perception and comparing it with long-term trends is crucial for designing appropriate responses. Thus, this study examined climate parameters and smallholder farmers’ awareness of climate change in the Jemma sub-basin. A total of 366 households were randomly selected from highland, midland, and lowland kebeles. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected through household surveys, focus group discussions, and key informant interviews. Grided monthly precipitation and temperature data were obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorology Institute. The Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed to examine the time series trends of rainfall and temperature. The MK trend test results revealed that yearly and summer season rainfall exhibit a non-significant increasing trend, while spring season rainfall shows a decreasing trend. The coefficient of variance shows that the monthly and spring season rainfall shows the highest variability (CV>30 %), while the annual rainfall shows less variability. Similarly, the mean annual, maximum, and minimum temperatures show an increasing trend. Consequently, about 83.47 % of highland, 91.54 % of midland, and 100 % of lowland respondents feel the temperature rise, and 44.62 %, 66.2 %, and 100 % of highland, midland, and lowland respondents recognized the decreasing rainfall trend, respectively. The analysis result reveals that age, gender, access to climate information, education, farming experience, and market access significantly influence perceptions of temperature and rainfall trends. Therefore, farmers’ perceptions should be integrated into meteorological data analysis, and policymakers should consider these disparities when developing climate adaptation strategies.