Irresponsible Use of Speculative Public Health Estimates to Justify Drug Interdiction in the US

As public sentiment for drug interdiction as a means of combatting drug use in America wanes, the US government and its federal law enforcement agencies are turning to statistics to assert the public health benefits of seizing illicit substances. Particularly, these entities are quantifying a hypothetical number of lives saved and new users prevented according to the amount of drugs seized per interdiction. These numbers are striking and appear to show a significant positive public health benefit. However, the methods used to calculate the statistics are never revealed. Additionally, when analyzed based on current publicly available data, the statistics don’t seem to be reasonable estimations. This paper focuses on an analysis of some publicly disseminated statistics of lives saved and new users prevented after recent seizures to determine their validity. This analysis is followed by a discussion of the potential harms of spreading false public health statistics related to drug interdiction.