Decoupling effects and driving factors of economic development and resource environment in arid areas: Evidence from Xinjiang, China

The economic development of a region is contingent upon the availability of resources and the state of the environment. The exploration of the asset value of resources, the adjustment of the coordination between economic development and resource-environmental sustainability, and the promotion of regional human-land harmony are of vital theoretical and practical significance for achieving high-quality development and ecological sustainability. The present study examines the Xinjiang region, analysing the overall characteristics and spatio-temporal evolution of regional ED and RE from 2001 to 2022. The Tapio decoupling elasticity model is utilised to evaluate the decoupling status between ED and RE. This is complemented by spatial autocorrelation and centre of gravity-standard deviation ellipse analyses, which are employed to explore their spatial evolution. Furthermore, Tobit regression is employed to identify the key driving factors. The findings indicate a substantial "Matthew effect" in the patterns of regional economic development. The bivariate spatial relationship between ED and RE has transitioned from a negative correlation to a positive correlation. The decoupling states are predominantly comprised of weak decoupling, strong negative decoupling, and strong decoupling, with developmental modes transitioning from developmental retardation to intensive expansion type. It is evident that factors such as economic level and technological innovation have a significant positive effect on the decoupling between ED and RE. The findings of this study provide theoretical insights and empirical evidence to support sustainable regional development under resource and environmental constraints in arid oasis areas. • The reasonable threshold of regional ED and RE decoupling under resource and environment constraints in arid region is solved. • A theoretical framework for the Pareto optimization of ED and RE benefits from endogenous and exogenous perspectives is proposed. • The ED and RE decoupling can effectively contribute to sustainable regional development. • Level of economic development, science and technology innovation, and government influence are the core factors.