Spatial distribution and climate dependency of the hooded vulture (Necrosyrtes monachus) in east Africa: Implications for conservation beyond protected areas

The Hooded Vulture ( Necrosyrtes monachus ) plays a vital role in environmental cleaning and disease control. However, its population is rapidly declining across its range, especially in East Africa. Despite conservation efforts invested in its protection, its spatial distribution in East Africa remains understudied. Utilising ensemble Species Distribution Models, this study leverages the response of N. monachus to bioclimatic factors, elevation, and land cover to predict the species ' current distribution across Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda, and assess potential climate change impacts. Findings reveal that only 11.813% of the study area represents suitable habitat for N. monachus , with 35.954% of this falling within protected areas. The Hooded Vulture exhibited strong dependence on climatic conditions, with variables of large influence to its distribution being isothermality, annual mean temperature, precipitation seasonality, elevation, and annual precipitation, while the urban land exhibited moderate influence. Climate change projections indicate regional habitat stability, but varying spatial and climatic pathway-based trajectories, with habitat expansions under sustainable development pathways (SSP126) and mixed outcomes under fossil-fuelled scenarios (SSP585), particularly affecting Kenya with consistent declines, while Tanzania, Uganda, and Rwanda showed expansions. The proportion of suitable habitat within protected areas remained stable across scenarios, though substantial national disparities persist. This research underscores the role of modelling in informed conservation and urgency in transboundary conservation strategies extending beyond currently protected areas and provides critical insights for adaptive conservation planning to safeguard the Hooded Vulture ' s future in East Africa.