The effect of urban climate shifts on land values in the Chesapeake Bay area

This study develops a micro-level Ricardian model to assess how long-run climate patterns affect agricultural land values across the urban-rural gradient in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Using an 8-km gridded dataset that combines farmland prices, high-resolution climate data, and urban land cover, the analysis shows that seasonal temperature and precipitation affect land values nonlinearly, and urbanization significantly moderates the effects of precipitation. A climate simulation suggests heterogeneous impacts across urban grids. Our findings highlight the critical role of urban land cover in shaping climate adaptation strategies, offering new insights into how transitional urban-agricultural regions respond to climate stress. These results provide actionable guidance for policymakers seeking to enhance agricultural resilience in the face of continued urban expansion.