Population dynamics and rising temperatures in Serbia: Regional aspect

Serbia is experiencing severe demographic challenges alongside significant environmental pressures. Both components of population dynamics-natural increase and migration balance-have contributed to a declining population trend. Simultaneously, Serbia is expected to be heavily impacted by climate change, particularly in terms of rising average temperatures. Using cluster analysis, this study identifies homogeneous areas within Serbia based on population dynamics and climate parameters. Employing 10 key variables, Serbian municipalities were classified into four distinct clusters. The capital, Belgrade, stands out as a 'heat island' with the highest immigration rates, while municipalities in Eastern, Southeastern, and partially Western Serbia-predominantly hilly and mountainous regions-exhibit more favorable climatic conditions but suffer from severe demographic decline (depopulation, negative migration balance, and negative natural increase). This analysis raises an essential question for future research: Will the intensification of climate change and the worsening environmental conditions in the capital alter migration patterns, directing populations toward regions characterized by lower environmental stress and reduced exposure to climate extremes in Serbia? This study establishes a strong foundation for further research within the POPENVIROS project, which aims to explore the relationship between population dynamics and climate change in Serbia. Identifying homogeneous regions-one of the primary objectives of this paper-will facilitate the mapping of specific areas that require deeper investigation into the complex interactions between demographic trends and climate change.