Migration as a strategy of adaptation to climate changes

This study investigates internal population migration following the catastrophic May 2014 flood in Serbia, aiming to address the extent to which migration functioned as an adaptive strategy and to identify which population groups were more prone to migrate. Based on available quantitative data from secondary sources, population outmigration was analyzed across seven municipalities: Obrenovac and Lazarevac from the Belgrade District, three municipalities from the Mačva District (Krupanj, Ljubovija, and Mali Zvornik), one municipality from the Kolubara District (Osečina), and the municipality of Pećinci from the Srem District. Data on the number of emigrants and immigrants in the selected municipalities were obtained from demographic statistics relying on migration records (internal migrations). A time series of emigration data was constructed for the period 2002-2022 to provide insights into two decades of trends in emigration rates, immigration rates, and migration balance, as well as to identify any trend changes after 2014. The second part of the analysis focused on the demographic structure of the local population with regard to their differing capacities to adapt to the consequences of the natural disaster to which they were exposed. We posited that a higher share of emigrants relative to the total population in the districts/republic was an effect of the natural disaster, resulting in a specific concentration of emigrant populations within the municipality, particularly within its subgroups. The results demonstrated that the catastrophic 2014 flood influenced emigration trends in flood-affected municipalities in two ways: on one hand, it contributed to an increase in outmigration rates, interpreted as a spontaneous population response to the risk they faced; on the other hand, it reduced emigration by limiting the resources necessary for migration. During the flood year, increased emigration involved all population groups, with a somewhat more pronounced rise in migration among women and pensioners. Over time, however, elevated emigration returned to regular age patterns. The concentration of emigrant populations in flooded municipalities was especially pronounced when compared to the national level of the Republic of Serbia, and heterogeneous population responses were evident across all indicators used in the study. Findings indicated that the choice of migration as an adaptive strategy was significantly shaped by the (in)security of household incomes, with migrants more frequently originating from economically developed municipalities less reliant on agriculture as a primary source of income. In the context of very limited public in situ adaptation and state assistance, which largely consisted of partial financial compensation for damages, emigration as an adaptation strategy should be understood as a dynamic category with potential to contribute to economic development. Adaptation strategies should evolve toward more transformative approaches rather than merely attempting to preserve existing practices.