No home team bias in elite football referees: Assessing correctness of refereeing decisions in the English Premier League

It is unclear whether referee decisions contribute to home advantage in football. This ambiguity stems from significant advancements in the development and training of officials, methodological limitations, such as the use of regression models to provide estimates, in extant research, and team behaviours. Thus, there may appear to be a bias when there is none. This study aimed to establish whether referees contribute to home advantage in elite football. Decisions (N = 4,201) from 172 games from the English Premier League 2022/23 season were analysed by 43 qualified football referees, with two officials allocated to each fixture. The referees independently assessed free-kicks, yellow cards, red cards, penalty kicks and non-whistled penalty kicks given by the on-field official using clips from WyScout. Decisions were recorded as ‘correct’ or ‘incorrect’ in unanimous cases, or ‘disputed’ if the two officials did not agree. Data from the free-kick and yellow card categories were considered suitable for analysis and compared using a series of linear mixed-effects models. There were no significant differences found between home and away teams for correct, disputed, and incorrect decisions, showing that neither team were differentially favoured by the referee, and therefore their decisions could not contribute to home advantage. Findings support the efficacy of referee development and the territoriality model’s explanation of home advantage in professional football.