Pharmaceutical products trade dynamics of BRICS (BRICS10): Global positioning, intra-bloc trade, and future policy directions

This study examines pharmaceutical trade dynamics within the expanded BRICS10 grouping, comprising the original BRICS5 members (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and five countries that joined in 2024–2025: Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Indonesia (these five hereafter referred to as “BRICS Newcomers,” abbreviated as “Newcomers”). The 10 countries are collectively referred to as “BRICS10.” Focusing on 2012–2023, the study explores whether trade patterns within BRICS5, among Newcomers, between the two groups, and across BRICS10 reveal structural asymmetries or early integration signals. A 12-year country-level panel was built using United Nations Comtrade HS Code 30 data on pharmaceutical products. Missing values for Iran and Russia were filled using reclassified mirror statistics. Key indicators included compound annual growth rates (CAGR), trade balances, intra- and inter-group trade shares, and 1 080 dyad-level Trade Intensity Index (TII) scores. Data processing and visualization were conducted using R. In 2023, BRICS10 accounted for 9.7% of global pharmaceutical imports and 4.7% of exports. Intra-bloc trade was limited and uneven: 64.4% of the dyads were under-traded, with a TII of less than 1, and only 3.1% reached very high intensity (TII ≥ 15). India was the sole net exporter, while most members remained dependent on imports. Trade spikes driven by the pandemic were short-lived. This is the first time-series analysis of pharmaceutical trade between BRICS10 countries at the dyad level. It reveals structural imbalances and under-trading on a large scale, providing new evidence to support policies aimed at promoting regional pharmaceutical integration and enhancing health system resilience through South–South cooperation.