Hydrological Analysis of the 2024 Flood in the Upper Biała Lądecka Sub-Basin in South Poland

The SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number) model is important for flood forecasting as it provides a relatively simple and widely used methodology for estimating the amount of surface runoff from a rainfall event, which is a crucial input in predicting flood volumes and peaks in ungauged or data-scarce watersheds. Thus, the authors developed a hydrological model based on the SCS-CN curve methodology and GIS (Geographic Information Systems) to estimate the flood hydrograph in the upper parts of the Biała Lądecka River basin in Poland. The numerical model was calibrated based on the data available from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW). The output of the model demonstrates the effect in the flood hydrograph at the town of Lądek-Zdrój. Additionally, hydraulic routing calculations were included to analyze the possible causes of the dam failure of the Stronie Śląskie reservoir in the year 2024. The main purpose of this study is to corroborate the influence of climate change on flood events and their consequences, as well as to assist in forecasting future catastrophic hydrological events and thus earlier adaptation and reinforce the infrastructure in our territories against future flooding.