Enhancing agricultural economic resilience in China: a spatio-temporal and multidimensional assessment under compound shocks

Amid escalating compound shocks that threaten global agricultural sustainability, this study establishes a multidimensional framework to systematically evaluate the spatiotemporal evolution and underlying mechanisms of agricultural economic resilience across 31 provinces in China from 2010 to 2022. The results indicate a consistent improvement in provincial resilience levels (ranging from 0.1 to 0.4), accompanied by a distinct clustering pattern in central China, whereas the western regions remain persistently vulnerable. Spatial autocorrelation analysis reveals a dynamic “hotspot–coldspot” configuration, with interregional disparities serving as the main source of overall inequality. Econometric analysis identifies agricultural mechanization, rural economic revitalization, educational progress, and targeted fiscal support as interacting factors that collectively enhance agricultural resilience. These findings offer empirically grounded, context-specific policy implications for building shock-resistant agricultural systems capable of maintaining long-term food security, thereby contributing to the broader discourse on agricultural resilience amid environmental and economic uncertainty.