Spatial heterogeneity of grain production resilience and its influencing factors in China: based on geographically weighted regression analysis

Under the background of global climate change, international trade friction, and a complex and changeable geopolitical situation, the problem of food security has become increasingly prominent. As the foundation of human survival and development, the stability and sustainability of food production are directly related to the economic security, social stability, and people’s well-being of the country. Grain production resilience is not only the stable guarantee of food output, but also the cornerstone of the stable operation of the national economy and society. Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2004 to 2022, this paper analyzes the spatiotemporal pattern and spatial heterogeneity of grain production resilience in China by using the entropy method, kernel density estimation, standard deviation ellipse, spatial correlation analysis, and geographically weighted regression. The kernel density curve gradually moved to the right, the peak height decreased continuously, and the curve shape changed from “double peak” to “single peak”; the average center was always located in Henan Province and gradually shifted to the north; the standard deviation ellipse was mainly located in the middle and east regions, and the coverage area gradually increased; the grain production resilience had positive spatial correlation, and there was spatial spillover effect in some regions, but the spatial correlation was gradually weakened; The effects of fiscal support to agriculture and agricultural production price index on grain production resilience were significantly negative, and presented a stratified diffusion pattern from north to south and from east to west respectively, while the effects of planting structure and regional market scale on grain production resilience were significantly positive, presenting a stratified diffusion pattern from northwest to southeast and from west to east respectively. Therefore, this paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: one is to strengthen regional coordination and linkage to optimize the spatial development pattern of grain production; the other is to perfect the financial support system to improve the efficiency of fund use; the third is to optimize the planting structure layout to enhance the system’s anti-risk ability; the fourth is to perfect the price control mechanism to stabilize market expectations.