Forecasting social media engagement: an ARIMA-based approach

This study analyses social media engagement on X Company's Instagram and Facebook pages, forecasting the engagement rate (ER) using the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model based on 2 years of data. The objectives were to understand social media behaviour, develop and evaluate an ARIMA model for ER forecasting, and develop a predictive social media dashboard. Findings revealed high predictability for both Instagram and Facebook ER data, though the high mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) indicated room for improvement. Using business intelligence tools (Power BI), the study has developed an interactive dashboard for real-time insights and reliable forecasts, enhancing social media management for X Company. Continuous monitoring and adjustment of strategies based on actual ER values are recommended due to possible real-world changes.