The use of water in the Seine Estuary River basin by the regional economy in 2050: a multisectoral prospective approach

This article examines the prospects for growth in economic activity along the Seine estuary in 2050. The impact of climate change on this estuary would potentially increase its attractiveness, particularly for service-related activities, due to a warmer and less rainy climate. Consequently, we identify the boundaries of such increased attractiveness in order to maintain water use that protects the estuary from the risks of hydric stress. These limits are identified using an input-output model extended to water resources. We show that the potential for growth before reaching the defined environmental limit is significant, but still achievable, even for an economy adhering to the National Low Carbon Strategy.