A cell-state axis underlying colonization in carcinomas with implications for metastasis risk prediction and interception

Metastasis to the liver drives mortality in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), yet mechanisms of colonization remain unclear. Using genomic barcoding, we developed a clonal competition model under immune surveillance, isolating murine PDAC subclones with high or low liver-colonization potential. Combined transcriptome and chromatin-accessibility analyses revealed a distinct "metastatic-potential axis," separate from the normal-to-PDAC and classical-basal axes. We established "MetScore" as a biomarker of this axis. MetScore distinguishes metastases from primary PDAC tumors in patients, predicts outcomes beyond classical-basal classifications, and generalizes across carcinoma subtypes, suggesting conserved colonization mechanisms. High-MetScore PDAC cells preferentially occupy immune cell-enriched niches, suggesting they remodel the metastatic microenvironment. Functional screening identified c-Fos as a positive mediator of colonization and a candidate anti-metastatic target. Collectively, we identify a cell-state axis underpinning PDAC liver colonization, introduce MetScore as a broadly applicable biomarker, and nominate actionable targets for peri-operative therapeutic intervention.