Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore

Climate change is shifting when animals breed<sup>1,2</sup>, but it is still not clear why some populations keep pace with warming while others fall behind<sup>3,4</sup>. Differences could arise from variation in sensitivity to temperature<sup>3</sup> or constraints on the ability to respond to temperature. Without knowing whether populations differ in sensitivity-or in their ability to act on that sensitivity-we cannot identify which are most at risk. Using 1,555 population-years from 123 populations of tree swallows (<i>Tachycineta bicolor</i>), we show that populations have similar sensitivity to local temperature, advancing breeding by about one day per degree of warming. However, northern populations face tighter time constraints and greater exposure to recent warming. Northern populations have advanced laying dates the most, but still experience stronger selection for earlier breeding, especially in warm years; they have also declined most in breeding abundance. These findings show that vulnerability to climate change can arise not just from different sensitivity to warming, but from when and where populations can respond effectively. By disentangling sensitivity from timing constraints, our results support a general mechanism by which even uniformly responsive species can show uneven impacts of climate change across their ranges.

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Publication Details

Journal
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Published
2025-12-17
DOI
https://doi.org/10.64898/2025.12.15.694424
Primary Topic
Avian ecology and behavior
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore

Karina Mariela Guerra Jordán, Corey E. Tarwater, Dany Garant, Linda A. Whittingham et al.
bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Avian ecology and behavior
article

Divergent climate impacts despite similar response to temperature in a widespread aerial insectivore

Karina Mariela Guerra Jordán, Corey E. Tarwater, Dany Garant, Linda A. Whittingham, Jessica Gutiérrez, Robert W. Klaver, Michael P. Lombardo, Mark T. Stanback, Stephen C. Lougheed, Conor C. Taff, Marc Bélisle, Carol M. Vleck, Frances Bonier, Lisha L. Berzins, Lauren Albert, Carolyne Houle, David Vleck, Cédric Zimmer, Sarah A. Knutie, David W. Winkler, James W. Rivers, Samuel B. Case, Eric A. Riddell, Ashley C. Love, David A. Aborn, Morgan W. Tingley, Ann E. McKellar, Alex Rose, Kyle G. Horton, Ryan P. Shannon, Casey Youngflesh, Ethan D. Clotfelter, Christy A. Morrissey, Braelei Hardt, Fanie Pelletier, Maren N. Vitousek, Cornelia W. Twining, Dave Shutler, Michael W. Butler, Daniel R. Ardia, Tricia Blake, Peter O. Dunn, Mia Nahom, Victoria F. Simons, Anna Forsman, Russell D. Dawson, Katherine S. Lauck, Elizabeth P. Derryberry, Nathaniel T. Wheelwright, Amelia R. Cox, Stuart A. Mackenzie, Benjamin A. Tonelli, John P. McCarty, Valentina Ferretti, Hannah Brewer, Cody Porter, Julie C. Hagelin, Patricia L. Jones, Mercy E Harris, Jennifer J. Uehling, Amos Belmaker, Kyle Cameron, Amanda S. Kindel, Wallace B. Rendell, David Chang van Oordt, Kimberly A. Rosvall, Melanie L. Truan, Matthew Fuirst, Jennifer L. Houtz, Daniel Roy Garrett, J. Ryan Shipley, L. Para, Nicole Mejia, D. Ryan Norris, Robert G. Clark, Michael L. Watson, Tom Ryan, Raleigh J. Robertson, Patrick A. Thorpe, Ana Maria Diaz Bohorquez, Christine L Tischer
article en

Abstract

Climate change is shifting when animals breed<sup>1,2</sup>, but it is still not clear why some populations keep pace with warming while others fall behind<sup>3,4</sup>. Differences could arise from variation in sensitivity to temperature<sup>3</sup> or constraints on the ability to respond to temperature. Without knowing whether populations differ in sensitivity-or in their ability to act on that sensitivity-we cannot identify which are most at risk. Using 1,555 population-years from 123 populations of tree swallows (<i>Tachycineta bicolor</i>), we show that populations have similar sensitivity to local temperature, advancing breeding by about one day per degree of warming. However, northern populations face tighter time constraints and greater exposure to recent warming. Northern populations have advanced laying dates the most, but still experience stronger selection for earlier breeding, especially in warm years; they have also declined most in breeding abundance. These findings show that vulnerability to climate change can arise not just from different sensitivity to warming, but from when and where populations can respond effectively. By disentangling sensitivity from timing constraints, our results support a general mechanism by which even uniformly responsive species can show uneven impacts of climate change across their ranges.

bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory)
Alaska Department of Fish and Game (US), University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill (US), Allegheny College (US), University of Nebraska at Omaha (US), University of Wyoming (US), National Audubon Society (US), Oregon State University (US), National Wildlife Federation (US), California Department of Fish and Wildlife (US), Environment and Climate Change Canada (CA), Université de Sherbrooke (CA), Bowdoin College (US), University of Connecticut (US), Davidson College (US), Hope College (US), University of Northern British Columbia (CA), West Chester University (US), University of California, Los Angeles (US), Tel Aviv University (IL), Birds Canada (CA), Franklin & Marshall College (US), Iowa State University (US), University of Tennessee at Chattanooga (US), Amherst College (US), Lafayette College (US), University of Colorado Boulder (US), Princeton University (US), Queen's University (CA), Cornell University (US), Purdue University West Lafayette (US), Universidad de Buenos Aires (AR), Colby College (US), Itasca Community College (US), Gulf States Marine Fisheries Commission (US), University of Saskatchewan (CA), Loyalist College (CA), Sorbonne Université (FR), Université Sorbonne Paris Nord (FR), Link Consulting (PT), Indiana University Bloomington (US), Laboratoire d’Ethologie Expérimentale et Comparée (FR), Government of Northwest Territories (CA), Itasca Consultants (United States) (US), University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee (US), Pacific States Marine Fisheries Commission (US), Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology (CH), University of Tennessee at Knoxville (US), University of Guelph (CA), Clemson University (US), Miami University (US), University of California, Davis (US), Grand Valley State University (US), Acadia University (CA)
National Science Foundation, U.S. Department of Agriculture, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, University of Connecticut, University of Northern British Columbia, Iowa State University, Université de Sherbrooke, Queen's University, Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Institutes of Health, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada, British Columbia Knowledge Development Fund
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