Recidivism rates among online child sexual exploitation material offenders: systematic review and meta-analyses

Forensic and legal practitioners benefit from having an empirically derived estimate of the risk that men who access online child sexual exploitation materials (CSEM) will go on to commit further sexual offences. Given the increase in the distribution and use of such materials, the authors sought to derive an estimate, drawing on studies published up to the beginning of 2025. We searched databases that investigated recidivism rates among those convicted of at least one CSEM offence. Four random-effects meta-analyses were conducted to derive the pooled prevalence rates of (1) any sexual re-offending, (2) contact sexual re-offending, (3) CSEM re-offending and (4) violent re-offending. We identified 21 studies of 15,077 individuals. Meta-analyses revealed that, in those convicted of at least one online CSEM offence, 3.41% committed any sexual re-offence, 0.66% committed a contact sexual re-offence, 3.05% committed an online CSEM re-offence and 1.12% committed a violent re-offence over an average follow-up time of approximately 4 years. High heterogeneity was detected across all analyses. Findings indicate low recidivism rates despite the increased availability of such materials online. The use of official conviction data alone is likely to underestimate re-offending rates. Nonetheless, these findings can critically inform risk assessments and sentencing practices in this population.