Explaining Mexico’s Energy–Economy Linkages Under Limited Information: VAR-Based IRF and FEVD Evidence

This study examines the short- and medium-run linkages within Mexico’s energy–economy system under conditions of limited information. The analysis is motivated by the structural relevance of hydrocarbons for fiscal stability and by the growing need to understand how energy shocks propagate through economic and environmental subsystems. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) framework, nine interdependent macroeconomic and energy variables are jointly evaluated after harmonizing mixed-frequency data, standardizing series, and ensuring stationarity through ADF and KPSS tests. Dynamic responses are assessed through impulse response functions (IRFs), generalized IRFs (GIRFs), and forecast error variance decomposition (FEVD), complemented by Granger causality tests. Results show that oil rents exert a persistent and positive influence on GDP and public expenditure, while shocks to coal-fired generation and oil prices consistently reduce economic activity and increase emissions. Renewable capacity expands pro-cyclically but displays limited autonomous effects. Overall, the evidence reveals a fiscally and environmentally constrained system dominated by hydrocarbons, underscoring the importance of improving PEMEX’s operational efficiency, accelerating fiscal diversification, and strengthening institutional conditions for renewable investment.