Importance sampling algorithm for generalized failure probability function

Under probabilistic inputs and fuzzy states, the generalized failure probability function (GFPF) gives the GFPF value as a function of the random-input distribution parameter (DP) within the design domain. By quantifying how these DPs affects structural safety, the GFPF decouples generalized reliability-based design optimization from generalized failure probability constraints. To efficiently estimate GFPF, a single-loop method utilizing cross-entropy-based importance sampling (SL-CEIS) is developed. Initially, an optimal importance sampling density (ISD) is designed, which is independent of DPs yet encompasses the entire design domain. Based on this unified density, a single-loop framework is proposed whereby different GFPF values corresponding to various DP realizations are capable of being estimated using a single importance sample pool drawn from the unified ISD. Subsequently, an importance sampling density based on cross-entropy is formulated to approximate the unified ISD with implicit and irregular expressions, enabling efficient exploration of the fuzzy failure domain and extraction of important samples. Finally, a Kriging model is adaptively trained to forecast the performance function values of the importance samples. Numerical tests show SL-CEIS delivers accurate GFPF estimates at a cost that scales neither with the dimension of DPs nor with the number of their realizations.

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Publication Details

Journal
IET conference proceedings.
Published
2025-12-01
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1049/icp.2025.3407
Primary Topic
Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
Type
article
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article

Importance sampling algorithm for generalized failure probability function

Xiaomin Wu, Zhenzhou Lü
IET conference proceedings.
Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
article

Importance sampling algorithm for generalized failure probability function

Xiaomin Wu, Zhenzhou Lü
article en

Abstract

Under probabilistic inputs and fuzzy states, the generalized failure probability function (GFPF) gives the GFPF value as a function of the random-input distribution parameter (DP) within the design domain. By quantifying how these DPs affects structural safety, the GFPF decouples generalized reliability-based design optimization from generalized failure probability constraints. To efficiently estimate GFPF, a single-loop method utilizing cross-entropy-based importance sampling (SL-CEIS) is developed. Initially, an optimal importance sampling density (ISD) is designed, which is independent of DPs yet encompasses the entire design domain. Based on this unified density, a single-loop framework is proposed whereby different GFPF values corresponding to various DP realizations are capable of being estimated using a single importance sample pool drawn from the unified ISD. Subsequently, an importance sampling density based on cross-entropy is formulated to approximate the unified ISD with implicit and irregular expressions, enabling efficient exploration of the fuzzy failure domain and extraction of important samples. Finally, a Kriging model is adaptively trained to forecast the performance function values of the importance samples. Numerical tests show SL-CEIS delivers accurate GFPF estimates at a cost that scales neither with the dimension of DPs nor with the number of their realizations.

IET conference proceedings.Vol. 2025(35)
Northwestern Polytechnical University (CN)
Openalex Percentile: Top 61%
Probabilistic and Robust Engineering Design
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Importance sampling algorithm for generalized failure probability function — Xiaomin Wu, Zhenzhou Lü · IET conference proceedings. (2025) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS