Reliability assessment of rocket flight test based on fuzzy comprehensive judgment method

During the preliminary design phase of rocket projectiles, the availability of flight failure data is notably limited. Although reliability assessments are generally derived from subsystem reliability allocations, the success of flight testing is influenced not only by subsystem reliability but also by mission-specific flight parameters, which often exhibit uncertainty and imprecision. To address this challenge, a novel reliability evaluation methodology is introduced based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. This method systematically analyzes factors affecting the flight reliability of rocket systems throughout the assembly, transportation, and flight stages, and applies fuzzy mathematics theory to establish a robust evaluation model for quantifying reliability in individual flight missions. Validation outcomes confirm the methodological soundness and practical relevance of the proposed approach, providing meaningful guidance for the design and evaluation of complex weapon systems.