The command-and-control equipment repairable component consumption predicting method considering failure rate rollback trend

To address the challenge of predicting the consumption of repairable components in command and control (C2) equipment during peacetime, this study investigates the mechanism by which failure rates of repairable components decrease under original part repair strategies. Utilizing reliability analysis and stochastic process theory, a predictive methodology is developed that accounts for multiple constraints, including limitations on failure rate rollback, restrictions on repair frequency, and constraints related to maintenance budgets. The scientific soundness and practical effectiveness of the proposed approach are validated through numerical case studies. This research further provides theoretical guidance to support departments in the development of maintenance material plans and the rational allocation of repairable component inventories.