Development of a comprehensive resilience evaluation framework for civil aviation organizations

Civil aviation safety is of critical importance due to the severe human and economic consequences associated with potential accidents. The aviation industry increasingly faces complex and evolving uncertainties, where both low-probability high-impact events, often referred to as 'Black Swan' incidents, and highly probable but neglected risks, known as 'Grey Rhino' events, may occur unexpectedly. To mitigate the occurrence of accidents and serious incidents in air transportation, it is essential for civil aviation organizations to enhance their resilience capabilities. A resilience evaluation framework for civil aviation organizations is developed, grounded in the use of quantitative resilience indicators. The current state of research on resilience is reviewed and synthesized, and a systematic framework is presented to facilitate quantitative assessment. Specific indicators for evaluating the resilience of civil aviation organizations are established, forming the foundation of a novel evaluation model. This model is designed to assess resilience levels of civil aviation organization based on the defined indicators. The proposed resilience evaluation framework is applied in an airport in the Southwest Region of China to demonstrate its practical applicability and effectiveness. The results of the assessment offer evidence-based guidance to support decision-makers in formulating resilience enhancement strategies.