Reliability-centered health management of human spine degeneration based on Markov model

This study explored the temporal progression of human intervertebral disc height and projected its potential degenerative trajectory. Time-series X-ray imaging data from patients at West China Hospital, Sichuan University, were employed. Due to the limited number of available data points, linear interpolation was applied to address missing values. The rate of change in the intervertebral disc height index (DHI) was modeled as a stochastic variable. A Discrete-Time Markov Chain (DTMC) model was constructed, and its reliability was assessed using Monte Carlo simulations. The results demonstrated that the majority o f observed data points fell within the 95% confidence interval of the model's predictions. Reliability analysis further reveale d that most discs experienced a marked decline in reliability starting in the 13th year of degeneration, reaching 0% by the 16th year.