Failure modes and reliability analysis of spline connection structures in transmission systems

A comprehensive reliability analysis is carried out for spline connection structures within transmission system s, with a particular focus on identifying failure modes and assessing their associated probabilities. Primary failure modes are determi ned through systematic classification and causal analysis. Based on mechanical principles and finite element simulation, computational models for evaluating spline strength and wear are developed. Sensitivity analysis is subsequently performed to identify key influencing parameters. The stochastic characteristics of these parameters are quantified using the Monte Carlo simulation method, resulting in the derivation of stress and wear depth distribution patterns under varying failure probabilities. Spline structures are shown to demonstrate high reliability under standard operating conditions. However, the probability of failure increases significantly under high-torque and high-speed scenarios. This study offers a theoretical foundation for the design and maintenance of spline structures in transmission systems and provides a basis for future experimental investigations.