Health and Environmental Drivers of Urban Park Visitation Inequalities During COVID-19: Evidence from Las Vegas

Urban parks are essential components of sustainable cities, providing vital health, social, and environmental benefits. Using weekly smartphone-based visitation data for 182 parks in Las Vegas from 2019 to 2022, this study quantifies how the COVID-19 pandemic altered park use and identifies the socio-economic, environmental, and infrastructural determinants of these changes. Park visitation in Las Vegas showed a marked early pandemic decline followed by uneven recovery, with socially vulnerable neighborhoods lagging behind. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and Random Forest (RF) models were used to capture both linear and nonlinear relationships. The RF model explained 81% of the variance in standardized visitation (R2 = 0.81, RMSE = 0.0415), substantially outperforming the OLS benchmark (R2 = 0.24, RMSE = 0.0656). Domain-specific RF models show that socio-economic variables alone achieve an R2 of 0.88, compared with about 0.70 for housing, environmental/health, and lighting variables, while demographic variables explain only 0.39, indicating that social vulnerability is the dominant driver of visitation inequalities. Phase-specific analyses further reveal that RF performance increases from R2 = 0.84 before the pandemic to R2 = 0.87 after it, as park visitation becomes more strongly coupled with socio-economic and health-related burdens. After COVID-19, poverty, uninsured rates, and asthma prevalence emerge as the most influential predictors, while the relative importance of demographic composition and environmental exposure diminishes. These findings demonstrate that pandemic-era inequalities in park visitation are driven primarily by reinforced socio-economic and health vulnerabilities, underscoring the need for targeted, equity-oriented green-infrastructure interventions in disadvantaged neighborhoods.