A Sustainable Monitoring and Predicting Method for Coal Failure Using Acoustic Emission Event Complex Networks

Prediction of coal and rock dynamic disasters is essential for ensuring the safety, efficiency, and long-term sustainability of deep mining operations. To improve the accuracy of acoustic methods for forecasting coal instability, acoustic emission (AE) source localization experiments are conducted on coal samples under uniaxial compression, and the multidimensional correlations among AE events together with the evolution characteristics of the corresponding complex network are investigated. The results show that the temporal correlations of AE events exhibit nonlinear decay with increasing time intervals, the spatial correlations display fractal clustering that transcends Euclidean geometry, and the energetic correlations reveal hierarchical transitions controlled by intrinsic material properties. To capture these interactions, a multidimensional correlation calculation method is developed to quantitatively characterize these multidimensional coupled relationships of AE events, and a complex network of AE events is constructed. The network evolution from sparse to highly interconnected is quantified using three parameters: average degree, clustering coefficient, and modularity. A rapid rise in the first two metrics, accompanied by a sharp decline in the latter, indicates the rapid strengthening of AE event correlations, the aggregation of local microcrack clusters, and their transition into a global fracture network, thereby providing a clear early warning of impending compressive failure of the coal sample. The study establishes a mechanistic link between microcrack evolution and macroscopic failure, offering a robust real-time monitoring tool that supports sustainable mining by reducing disaster risk, improving resource extraction stability, and minimizing socio-economic and environmental losses associated with dynamic failures in deep underground coal operations.