Integrating Bai–Perron and Environmental Kuznets Curve to Assess China’s Greenhouse Gas (CO2e) Emission Dynamics

This study investigates the evolution of China’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from 1969 to 2022 by combining Bai–Perron structural break analysis with Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) estimation. Prior research often assumes that economic growth naturally leads to emissions stabilization; however, our results show that China’s emissions trajectory did not decline automatically with rising income. Instead, major turning points coincide with targeted policy interventions, particularly after 2012 under the Ecological Civilization framework. While some EKC models suggest an inverted-U shape, the predicted turning points exceed observed income levels, indicating that growth alone cannot account for the recent deceleration in emissions. Evidence points to strengthened regulatory enforcement, centralized environmental governance, and large-scale renewable energy deployment as factors associated with these changes. These findings challenge the notion of a self-driven environmental transition and underscore the pivotal role of state-led institutional reforms in China’s decarbonization process.