Potential Distribution Modeling and Conservation Gap Identification for Rare and Endangered Plant Species: A Case Study of 10 Species in Hubei Province

With the continuous increase in the demand for land and natural resources, driven by population growth and economic expansion, the conservation of rare and endangered species faces mounting pressure. Exploring how to achieve the target of conserving 30% of the global terrestrial area proposed by the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework is of great significance for biodiversity and species protection. This study employed a combined SDMs-InVEST modeling approach to predict the current and future potential distributions, habitat quality, and carbon storage of 10 protected plant species in Hubei Province. Using the high-potential distribution areas of these 10 species as conservation targets, combined with regions of high habitat quality and carbon storage, Marxan was applied to identify conservation gaps for these 10 protected plant species in Hubei Province. Results indicate that the province-wide mean Habitat Quality Index (HQI) is projected to increase gradually from 0.355 to 0.366, while spatial heterogeneity of HQI will become more pronounced-western mountainous areas show marked HQI improvements, whereas HQI around central-eastern urban agglomerations declines significantly. Total ecosystem carbon storage in Hubei is projected to rise from 2.11 × 10⁹ t to 2.13 × 10⁹ t. On the basis of 423 occurrence records spanning 10 species (10 genera, 9 families), ensemble SDMs found climate to be the primary determinant of potential distributions; however, the future influence of anthropogenic disturbance and effects of habitat patches (EHPs) is projected to increase, leading to a 2.6% contraction in the total area of core potential distribution zones. These findings provide spatially explicit scientific guidance for optimizing regional protected-area networks and for aligning biodiversity conservation with carbon management objectives under China's dual-carbon strategy. Furthermore, multi-period systematic conservation planning revealed significant protection gaps in interprovincial mountainous regions, forming four key aggregation zones: the Jinqian River source region (Shiyan-Shaanxi), the Tongbai Mountain belt (Suizhou-Henan), the Mufu Mountain region (Xianning), and the Wuling Mountain corridor (Enshi-Chongqing). These regions represent future conservation priorities. Our findings indicate that priority should be given to establishing new nature reserves selected from the 219 conservation gap planning units identified in this study, in order to strengthen the regional conservation-planning system for rare and endangered plants in Hubei Province and to provide scientific and theoretical support for achieving the targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework.