Who wants what, and why? Attitude polarization and political viability of UBI

This study examines attitude polarization as a key determinant of the political viability of policy reforms, using Universal Basic Income (UBI) as a case in point. While public support for UBI is often high in aggregate, little is known about the extent and nature of underlying divisions. Drawing on a stratified online survey (n = 3076) conducted ahead of a local UBI campaign in Germany, we study who supports what type of basic income, and why . Methodologically, we extend conventional conjoint analysis to directly capture polarization over policy design, and complement it with open-ended responses to elicit respondents’ reasoning. Our findings show that polarization centers on the defining features of UBI – its generosity, unconditionality, and financing – yet also reveal areas of common ground for broader political coalitions. By combining a novel methodological approach with a focus on polarization, our study offers new insights into how public attitudes shape the political feasibility of policy reforms.